Historical and adjusted-for-inflation prices of calculators

[John Ioannidis]

I've been wondering for a long time how (un)realistic prices on The Auction Site are for some of the rarer models — an HP-19C in excellent condition goes for amost USD 1K.

I chose as my cut-off point the year the HP28C was introduced. With its weird form factor and language, it no longer counted as an HP calculator for me.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

The prices are prices at introduction of the base model.

The CPI data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0

While we are at it: there were two versions of the 32SII, the one with the traditional color scheme, and another (a re-implementation?) with the idiotic low-contrast HP-48G-like scheme. The museum does not have a picture of the latter, nor years of introduction or prices.

IMnsHO, the only decent calculator introduced in the last thirty years has been the HP-35S. Proper, high-contrast keyboard, excellent tactile feedback. Between that, and the excellent HP41 emulator for the Android (go41CX), all my calculator needs are handled!

[KF6GPE]

This is awesome, thanks!!

It explains why it took me so long to save up the money for my 41CV. At the time as a student it seemed impossible.

It also explains why my father only let me touch his HP-65 under close supervision.

[TallKey]

Would I spend around 900 in today's dollars on a 41CX replica?

...yes, I would.
Cleared my savings back then for the 41 experience.

The current tribute calculators are good, but they are not great. Will save the wish list for a future thread.

The prices for compute prior to about 1990, anything that had cool features (utility), stung.

Saying something about the OP's displeasure with the 32SII color scheme:
Seems the 32SII keyboard color change addressed the color blind. Teal / grey versus the brick red / blue. The teal / grey would be a problem for me, brick red / blue would be good.

[Namir]

(05-31-2023 08:16 PM)John Ioannidis Wrote:  I've been wondering for a long time how (un)realistic prices on The Auction Site are for some of the rarer models — an HP-19C in excellent condition goes for amost USD 1K.

I chose as my cut-off point the year the HP28C was introduced. With its weird form factor and language, it no longer counted as an HP calculator for me.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

The prices are prices at introduction of the base model.

The CPI data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0

While we are at it: there were two versions of the 32SII, the one with the traditional color scheme, and another (a re-implementation?) with the idiotic low-contrast HP-48G-like scheme. The museum does not have a picture of the latter, nor years of introduction or prices.

IMnsHO, the only decent calculator introduced in the last thirty years has been the HP-35S. Proper, high-contrast keyboard, excellent tactile feedback. Between that, and the excellent HP41 emulator for the Android (go41CX), all my calculator needs are handled!

Interesting Excel table. However what is missing is the devaluation data based on the general loss of interest in these calculators. the TAS should be a good source of data to see what "the offered prices" are for the various models. Interestingly the devaluation data is influenced by supply and demain which can vary with time. A few years ago I was selling working HP-41CV units on TAS auctions. Since I had MANY units to sell I offered them at a competitive price. When one 41CV unit sold, I posted, the same day, an aucion for another 41CV. I was able to bring the price of the 41CV offered even by other sellers.

Namir

[John Ioannidis]

(06-02-2023 03:34 PM)Namir Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 08:16 PM)John Ioannidis Wrote:  I've been wondering for a long time how (un)realistic prices on The Auction Site are for some of the rarer models — an HP-19C in excellent condition goes for amost USD 1K.

I chose as my cut-off point the year the HP28C was introduced. With its weird form factor and language, it no longer counted as an HP calculator for me.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

The prices are prices at introduction of the base model.

The CPI data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0

While we are at it: there were two versions of the 32SII, the one with the traditional color scheme, and another (a re-implementation?) with the idiotic low-contrast HP-48G-like scheme. The museum does not have a picture of the latter, nor years of introduction or prices.

IMnsHO, the only decent calculator introduced in the last thirty years has been the HP-35S. Proper, high-contrast keyboard, excellent tactile feedback. Between that, and the excellent HP41 emulator for the Android (go41CX), all my calculator needs are handled!

Interesting Excel table. However what is missing is the devaluation data based on the general loss of interest in these calculators. the TAS should be a good source of data to see what "the offered prices" are for the various models. Interestingly the devaluation data is influenced by supply and demain which can vary with time. A few years ago I was selling working HP-41CV units on TAS auctions. Since I had MANY units to sell I offered them at a competitive price. When one 41CV unit sold, I posted, the same day, an aucion for another 41CV. I was able to bring the price of the 41CV offered even by other sellers.

Namir

Lots of ways the table can be improved, including adding the prices of peripherals and/or options. My main purpose for building this table was to have a more immediate view of how reasonable an auction price was.

Anyone with the link can *comment* on the table, and I'll see the comments and maybe incorporate them; if you have historical data that you want to add, please comment and I'll see how they fit.
What would be really fascinating is if anyone had kept TAS historical data.

Best,

/ji

[Siegfried]

Thanks for this very interesting compilation. It is somehow sobering to see that buying machines in bulk in the 1970s/80s to resell them now would not have been a great business idea and that "worth as much as new" doesn't mean much without catering for cruel inflation.

Actual prices are usually way lower than historical prices adjusted for inflation. Even a 19C for 1K is just a bit more than 50% of its adjusted historical price.

I found it interesting that the 41CX cost less adjusted for inflation than the 41C at its introduction and that both were quite a bit cheaper than common home computers at the time. (While my impression is that the 41 series attracted a different kind of clientele than early home computers the overlap between programmable calculator and early home computer users/usage would be an interesting topic in itself.)

It will be interesting to see whether prices continue to increase to somewhere amounting to an ROI for contemporary buyers or flatten or even drop once the last of the "RPN generation" have died or at least become too old to remember how to use them ;-)

[Allen]

(06-02-2023 07:11 PM)John Ioannidis Wrote:  ...to have a more immediate view of how reasonable an auction price was.
...
What would be really fascinating is if anyone had kept TAS historical data.

Best,

/ji

I have 15+ years of historical pricing data (see my posts here about how some popular graphing, scientific and financial calculators measure up to inflation overtime )

Unfortunately this won't really get you a good sense of "how reasonable" an auction price is. I know the museum has an appropriately caveated list of price ranges, but this also falls short.

Like any other commodity, the best estimate of the "reasonable" prices is to look a the latest strike price. I've spent many years creating pricing models for "rare" items that only come up once every 5 years, and the long-and-short of it is, it does not matter how much I think things are worth. The market itself determines what is a "fair" or not fair price.

It also matters who is buying, who is selling, and the protections offered by the platform.

Buying:

• Savvy Collectors - they generally know the value of common and rare items and are willing to pay a little extra for higher quality
• Daily Users/Bargain Hunters - not looking for the price or quality of a museum piece.
• Corporate Buyers - they need this item at any reasonable cost. (e.g. survey equipment, limited by exam requirements, etc..)
  

Selling

• Expert Seller - someone who knows how to spot, test, and market to the right audience
• User - Not a collector, but someone who is familiar with the calculator for sale and can answer questions about the history and perform self tests, etc..
• Thrift Store/Garage sale - what you see is what you get.. They don't know anything about the calculator and are more likely to sell "as-is" or with no testing.
  

Platform

• eBay - good data on sales history, good data on seller feedback, good buyer protections if things go wrong. comprehensive availability for photos and descriptions. Multiple integrated payment systems.
• Amazon - limited photos and descriptions. Good buyer protections. Integrated payment system ( credit card)
• Mercari - an ebay-light with far fewer sellers and buyers. Integrated payment systems.
• Craigslist - wild west of buying and selling. Do at your own risk, especially if not local. No buyer or seller protections.
• Private Party Sale - depends on trust levels between traders. No buyer or seller protections.
  

For example if you're buying an "untested" 41CV from a thrift store seller, the risk you take is very different than buying from an expert seller who has run the factory diagnostic tests.

Likewise, if you're buying the same calculator on ebay (with good seller feedback, lots of photos, and a well-written description) versus a craigslist advertisement that has little other than a price and 12 word description, the amount of risk you take in each transaction is very different.

In all the permutations above, the strike price of any given calculator (ceteris paribus) depends on only 3 fundamental measures: trust, information asymmetry and risk tolerance.

IMHO, Assembling a "fixed" or "reasonable" price list is a quixotic task.