HHC2020

[Namir]

Hi All,

As far as I am concerned, I am not attending HHC2020, which may be canceled. This matter rests on the decision of the planning committee. Traveling through airports is going to be a major pain in the neck!

Namir

[Joe Horn]

On the one hand, the current Coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly have subsided by September. The CDC calls that "Phase 5: the Deceleration Interval", during which there is a decreasing number of new cases. On the other hand, that's followed by "Phase 6: the Preparation Interval", during which "public health officials continue to monitor the virus and brace for another wave of illness." In the 1918 flu pandemic, the second wave was WAY deadlier than the first wave.

By time this roller coaster comes to a complete stop, airline tickets will be too expensive to afford, or HHC 2020 will already be in the past. So I'm with Namir on this, and am currently planning on not attending HHC 2020 (if there is one).

[Jake Schwartz]

(03-16-2020 12:02 PM)Namir Wrote:  Hi All,

As far as I am concerned, I am not attending HHC2020, which may be canceled. This matter rests on the decision of the planning committee.

Namir

It seems a bit premature to assume that the conference will not be held, or that airports will still be problematic by early October. I'd hate to see Gene give up on his hotel arrangements at this point.

Jake

[rprosperi]

(03-16-2020 03:00 PM)Jake Schwartz Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 12:02 PM)Namir Wrote:  Hi All,

As far as I am concerned, I am not attending HHC2020, which may be canceled. This matter rests on the decision of the planning committee.

Namir

It seems a bit premature to assume that the conference will not be held, or that airports will still be problematic by early October. I'd hate to see Gene give up on his hotel arrangements at this point.

Jake

I agree with Jake. No one has yet suggested HHC is cancelled. Until these posts.

As for deciding at this point, early or not, to attend, that's of course each person's own business.

But posting that you aren't attending, 6-7 months early, can be anywhere from unsettling to downright scary to other folks likely affecting interest and attendance.

Unfortunately, this is how rumors start...

[Gene]

October is a long way off. Who knows what will happen between now and then.

Most hotels will allow for cancellations up to 3 days before an event.

Airlines will almost certainly have easy cancellation policies going forward to try to get someone (anyone?) to fly.

We will all have to watch events as we get closer to the time. We are certainly in the thick of events right now.

Please all - be safe and take care of yourself. Wash your hands early and often --- usually I had heard that as "Vote early and often" :-)

[mfleming]

(03-16-2020 10:09 PM)Gene Wrote:  Wash your hands early and often --- usually I had heard that as "Vote early and often" :-)

You must be from Chicago

"Don't forget, just because you're dead doesn't mean you shouldn't vote."

[Joe Horn]

(03-16-2020 08:03 PM)rprosperi Wrote:  As for deciding at this point, early or not, to attend, that's of course each person's own business.

But posting that you aren't attending, 6-7 months early, can be anywhere from unsettling to downright scary to other folks likely affecting interest and attendance.

Unfortunately, this is how rumors start...

Good point. Insofar as I exacerbated any fear and/or rumors, I apologize.

[Valentin Albillo]

(03-16-2020 10:09 PM)Gene Wrote:  We are certainly in the thick of events right now.

We're certainly not. The 'thick' will be when there are hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of infected people in Italy, Iran, Spain and perhaps other countries within a month or so from now.

As for 'washing hands frequently' this will certainly help somewhat but will do little to stop the infection from spreading. About the only thing that will work, short of some vaccine or cure being miraculously discovered soon, is mandatorily confining most people at home for at least one month or two.

A similar measure was implemented in Tom Clancy's novel "Executive Orders", released almost 24 years ago. I found it strange at the time I read it that restricting people's movements was the somewhat anticlimatic key but it seems that Clancy was right. Kinda 'deja vu'.

As I understand it, 'miracles' apart there's no way to stop the spreading, even with confinement. What mandatory confinement will achieve is *slowing down* the exponential spreading (say from 2x infected every 3 days to every week), so that you don't have more affected people *at once* than you can deal with, avoiding collapse of both the health system and the economy, and gaining time to try and find a cure.

V.

[Massimo Gnerucci]

(03-17-2020 02:00 AM)Valentin Albillo Wrote:  

(03-16-2020 10:09 PM)Gene Wrote:  We are certainly in the thick of events right now.

We're certainly not. The 'thick' will be when there are hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of infected people in Italy, Iran, Spain and perhaps other countries within a month or so from now.
(...)
As I understand it, 'miracles' apart there's no way to stop the spreading, even with confinement. What mandatory confinement will achieve is *slowing down* the exponential spreading (say from 2x infected every 3 days to every week), so that you don't have more affected people *at once* than you can deal with, avoiding collapse of both the health system and the economy, and gaining time to try and find a cure.

Yes, USA is just starting to be exposed; I am in my 4th week confined at home (luckily my work can easily be done from afar, that's not the case for everyone, my wife included).

My best wishes for your conference (and likewise, for the Allschwil's one).

[Gene]

My apologies for the insensitive choice of words. My intent was to refer to the "We" as the world that is in the thick of things now comparatively to how things were a month ago. I have been following the troubles my Italian and European brothers and sisters are facing and wish them well.

My frustration here in America has been a lack of seriousness in the approach to the coming of the virus. There are still people who believe it is a plot by ? to increase the power of the state and that this is in reality less of a worry than the annual/seasonal flu.

My pleas had fallen on deaf ears for the last month or so but given the near daily changes going on in American life now, I suspect it is getting harder for them to ignore the real seriousness of the situation.

I had no intent to downplay the pain, suffering and death occurring elsewhere. Collectively, WE are now in the thick of things. My prayer is that it becomes no thicker, although that may be where we are headed.

Apologies once again. Mea Culpa.

[David Hayden]

I plan to attend. I expect that by September or October, the worst will be over and the airlines and hotels will be hungry to get people back in their seats/beds.

Frequently wrong, but never in doubt,
Dave

[Sylvain Cote]

(03-17-2020 08:32 PM)David Hayden Wrote:  I plan to attend. I expect that by September or October, the worst will be over and the airlines and hotels will be hungry to get people back in their seats/beds.

Same here!

[Felix Gross]

I am with Dave and Sylvain and hopefully will be with them in September / October.

This situation is really difficult to predict. Things here in Berlin are rather quiet at the moment.

Everybody please stay safe.

[Albert Chan]

(03-17-2020 08:03 AM)Massimo Gnerucci Wrote:  Yes, USA is just starting to be exposed; I am in my 4th week confined at home
(luckily my work can easily be done from afar, that's not the case for everyone, my wife included).

If the trend pans out, Italy have 2 more week to go, before coronavirus curve level off.

https://statisticsbyjim.com/basics/coronavirus/
https://tom.alby.de/using-r-to-plot-corona-data/

[Eddie W. Shore]

My fingers are crossed that there will be an HHC 2020, even if it ends up being all-digital. I'm adopting a wait and see attitude regrading this and waiting until at least May to book anything.

Stay safe, sane, and healthy everyone!

[Massimo Gnerucci]

(03-18-2020 11:49 PM)Albert Chan Wrote:  

(03-17-2020 08:03 AM)Massimo Gnerucci Wrote:  Yes, USA is just starting to be exposed; I am in my 4th week confined at home
(luckily my work can easily be done from afar, that's not the case for everyone, my wife included).

If the trend pans out, Italy have 2 more week to go, before coronavirus curve level off.

https://statisticsbyjim.com/basics/coronavirus/
https://tom.alby.de/using-r-to-plot-corona-data/

That's simplicistic, I fear.
Epidemic is not evenly spread across the country: here, in the north, we are in the midst of the outbreak - as I wrote I'm in my 4th week of lockdown - while southern Italy is still at the beginning.
Spring, mild weather: we still see irresponsible people gathering outdoor, jogging...

[Maximilian Hohmann]

Hello!

(03-19-2020 08:10 AM)Massimo Gnerucci Wrote:  That's simplicistic, I fear.

Unfortunately yes. Until there is no vaccine or working cure, no one who was not infected yet will be safe. The measures taken right now in many parts of the world can only slow down the infection rate in order not to bust the capacities of hospitals.
And if the experts are right, there will be no vaccine yet by the time this conference is scheduled.

So maybe it would be smart to strart working on a "plan B" right now, like for example a conference held online. I am sure that the attendance will break every HHC record set up so far!

Stay safe
Max

[SlideRule]

Assorted germane reference material:

Viral Infections of Humans Epidemiology and Control, Fifth Edition
© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014
e-ISBN 978-1-4899-7448-8

Modern Methods for Epidemiology
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012
e-ISBN 978-94-007-3024-3

Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009
e-ISBN 978-90-481-2313-1

An Introduction to Mathematical Epidemiology
© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015
e-ISBN 978-1-4899-7612-3

Mathematical Models in Epidemiology
© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019
e-ISBN 978-1-4939-9828-9

Edifying reads.

BEST!
SlideRule

[aurelio]

(03-19-2020 08:10 AM)Massimo Gnerucci Wrote:  [quote='Albert Chan' pid='129231' dateline='1584575343']
we still see irresponsible people gathering outdoor, jogging...

Dear Massimo I saw, while going once at work, not every day the smart working is possible, people who never dressed a training suite in their life who were going to the park jogging, I can.t believe that!

[Andres]

I had been lucky enough to attend HHC 2007 and 2011 and expect HHC will keep going on for many, many years. However, for us HP calculator fans far from the USA, travel cost has been a burden not always easy to overcome. While face to face encounters are preferable, indeed, virtual meetings may be a good enough option, and even more in the current situation.

By example, the engineering courses courses I teach at my university were switched from "on premises" to "online" a few days ago due to the Covid issue, and all professors and students are working from home now without issues; in fact most of us are very satisfied with the new working mode.

This example prompts me to suggest an online meeting for HHC 2020. I realiza many features will not be easily ported to a virtual meeting. NDA sensitive content, demo units of future products, and door prizes come to my mind as examples. But a virtual HHC will be better than no HHC.

Please disregard any idiomatic mistake, and see this just as my opinion.