(41CV) EPIDEMIC MODEL (Reed-Frost) Deterministic & Stochastic versions

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An extract from Simple Algorithms for the Representation of Deterministic and Stochastic Versions of the Reed-Frost Epidemic Model Using a Programmable Calculator, American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 123 No. 5, 1986, 11 pgs.

Two programs are described for the emulation of the dynamics of Reed-Frost progressive epidemics in a handheld programmable calculator (HP-41C series). The programs provide a complete record of cases, susceptibles, and immunes at each epidemic period using either the deterministic formulation or the trough analogue of the mechanical model for the stochastic version. Both programs can compute epidemics that include a constant rate of influx or outflux of susceptibles and single or double infectivity time periods.
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MATERIALS AND METHODS
Equipment
Programs were written for an HP-41CV programmable calculator … The programs contain several instructions to allow printing of the output … i.e., frequencies of cases, susceptibles, and immunes at each epidemic period and a pictorial representation of the aligned balls in the trough.

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