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Pjwum · (This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 07:08 AM by Pjwum.)

Tremendous work, thanks for posting this!

I guess many of us are running their own individual modelings. One challenge is to derive an estimate for the dark figure of infected persons. This is a hugely varying factor between countries depending on when testing started, how intense, transportation and evaluation times, etc. It can roughly be calculated using the more reliable mortality numbers and parameters like mortality rate (latest is 1.4% according to Leung, Wu, Leung et al.) and duration of illness.
Either way, it is horrifying.