Apollo 11 + Kalman filter = Particle filter for epidemic modeling ?

[lrdheat]

Thanks for this!

Weather forecasters do something similar in looking at the various global, regional, and mesoscale numerical prediction and ensemble model runs. They are subject to observational errors, missing data, far from complete coupling of atmospheric processes to oceanic processes as well as orography, albedo, and vegetative state of land surfaces. Details are dependent on grid scale size and vertical layers being sampled/modeled. The various models have differing mathematical assumptions with regard to the physics of the processes, and due to computational/knowledge/observational limitations, much is parameterized, often with one size fits all parameterizations. A forecaster is constantly doing the Kalman type of thing with what the models are spitting out, with real time observations, and with a knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of the various models.

Most of the time, the “landing” is a soft one...amazing to see how my science has progressed in the course of a 44 year career, and how intertwined the atmospheric sciences are with other scientific disciplines. Also, the recognition over the years that we need help from the social sciences in constructing forecasts that are understood by the user, and that they produce an appropriate response by the consumer (thinking of flash flood, severe thunderstorm, tornado, hurricane watches and warnings)!