Historical and adjusted-for-inflation prices of calculators

[Allen]

(06-02-2023 07:11 PM)John Ioannidis Wrote:  ...to have a more immediate view of how reasonable an auction price was.
...
What would be really fascinating is if anyone had kept TAS historical data.

Best,

/ji

I have 15+ years of historical pricing data (see my posts here about how some popular graphing, scientific and financial calculators measure up to inflation overtime )

Unfortunately this won't really get you a good sense of "how reasonable" an auction price is. I know the museum has an appropriately caveated list of price ranges, but this also falls short.

Like any other commodity, the best estimate of the "reasonable" prices is to look a the latest strike price. I've spent many years creating pricing models for "rare" items that only come up once every 5 years, and the long-and-short of it is, it does not matter how much I think things are worth. The market itself determines what is a "fair" or not fair price.

It also matters who is buying, who is selling, and the protections offered by the platform.

Buying:

• Savvy Collectors - they generally know the value of common and rare items and are willing to pay a little extra for higher quality
• Daily Users/Bargain Hunters - not looking for the price or quality of a museum piece.
• Corporate Buyers - they need this item at any reasonable cost. (e.g. survey equipment, limited by exam requirements, etc..)
  

Selling

• Expert Seller - someone who knows how to spot, test, and market to the right audience
• User - Not a collector, but someone who is familiar with the calculator for sale and can answer questions about the history and perform self tests, etc..
• Thrift Store/Garage sale - what you see is what you get.. They don't know anything about the calculator and are more likely to sell "as-is" or with no testing.
  

Platform

• eBay - good data on sales history, good data on seller feedback, good buyer protections if things go wrong. comprehensive availability for photos and descriptions. Multiple integrated payment systems.
• Amazon - limited photos and descriptions. Good buyer protections. Integrated payment system ( credit card)
• Mercari - an ebay-light with far fewer sellers and buyers. Integrated payment systems.
• Craigslist - wild west of buying and selling. Do at your own risk, especially if not local. No buyer or seller protections.
• Private Party Sale - depends on trust levels between traders. No buyer or seller protections.
  

For example if you're buying an "untested" 41CV from a thrift store seller, the risk you take is very different than buying from an expert seller who has run the factory diagnostic tests.

Likewise, if you're buying the same calculator on ebay (with good seller feedback, lots of photos, and a well-written description) versus a craigslist advertisement that has little other than a price and 12 word description, the amount of risk you take in each transaction is very different.

In all the permutations above, the strike price of any given calculator (ceteris paribus) depends on only 3 fundamental measures: trust, information asymmetry and risk tolerance.

IMHO, Assembling a "fixed" or "reasonable" price list is a quixotic task.