COVID-19 Calculator

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During the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak it took about 20 months to develop a vaccine. The vaccine was never made commercially available due to the effective containment of the SARS virus.

Even if a vaccine makes it through all the rounds of testing, it’s unlikely that drugmakers can manufacture enough vaccine to protect everyone who might be exposed to the virus.

Moderna, which currently has the largest manufacturing capacity of the three CEPI-funded groups, thinks it could produce 100 million doses in a year, for the current COVID-19 virus, according to Science. That means health officials would need to prioritize who gets the vaccine. This is based on factors like who would have the most severe symptoms and who is most likely to spread the virus.

It appears that a COVID-19 vaccine, for the general population, will not be available in the immediate future.