Lockdown number crunching with the HP Prime

[JimP]

How is Melbourne tracking under its roadmap to reopening? The Victorian Premier has stated a supercomputer was used to determine scenarios for the Sept 28, Oct 26, Nov 23 dates based on various parameters. Using an HP Prime's 2Var statistics and Function apps, one can show the almost perfect logistic curve fitting equation based on the official data can be used to predict that for all other things being equal (ie the Stage 4 lockdown) the state will reach 50 cases (14 day moving average) on 16 September, 30 cases (14 day moving average) by 23 September (this is the whole state, not only Metro Melbourne) and <5 cases (14 day moving average) by 15 October. On that latter date the number of active cases should also have dropped below 200 based on a similar logistic curve analysis. To get to <1 new case (14 day moving average) -- the curve will never reach zero -- that will take until 3 November. But to reach <1 active cases in the state -- that will take until mid January 2021. Realistic? Let's see how well supercomputers vs HP Prime can do...