Lockdown number crunching with the HP Prime

[JimP]

(09-11-2020 03:59 PM)Pjwum Wrote:  Your extrapolation algorithms should make use of the SEIR model. I do it in Excel, but parameters change almost weekly.

You can do it even online very comfortably and with nice animation.

Nifty online simulator! My estimates were as much for simplicity as anything (as in _all other things being equal_ (which for Melbourne is Stage 4 lockdown until September 28, and not a large relaxation of restrictions until October 23). This is why I'll be intrigued to see whether the charting of 14 day averages (and yes, it's very easy to fit curves to historical data) will pan out over the coming few weeks. It'll also be interesting to see whether the government officials will adjust their roadmap should these predictions quicken the reduction in cases, but that's an entirely different can of worms.

At the very least it was a fun exercise with an HP Prime, and that's never bad!