Election predictions

[Albert Chan]

(11-06-2020 12:37 AM)David Hayden Wrote:  However, the program still assumes that the remaining votes will be divided between the two candidates. I could reduce the remaining votes by the same portion of 3rd party votes that are in the counted votes, but I figured that would have a very small effect.

The formula with same portion for 3rd party is simple, perhaps simpler.

To break even, total votes for democrats = total votes for republican.
Or, democrats get 50% of votes, shared between the 2 parties.

Dc*N*T + Do*(1-N)*T = (Rc + Dc)/2*T

Do-Dc = (Rc-Dc)/(2*(1-N))

Example, with N=0.95, Rc = 49.7%, Dc = 49.1%:

Do-Dc = 0.6% / 0.1 = 6%

Do = 49.1% + 6% = 55.1%