Soccer Tournament Predictor

[Gamo]

Found this Microsoft link interesting.
Show how to predict soccer tournament using Microsoft Excel.
Link: https://techcommunity.microsoft.com/t5/E...SCL_255098

Anyone here got a way to do this on HP programmable calculator?

Gamo

[pier4r]

There is this: http://eloratings.net/

that is already a good model. At work we have a "bet" game (based on glory, not $$) and I thought about doing some random simulation to estimate possible results but it is not that easy, as reality is always ultra complicated.

Nonetheless the elo score predicts good results 70% of the times more or less.

[pier4r]

also https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03208

https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01930

But the original article posted by Gamo is also full of nice data.

[pier4r]

By the way I am exploring with the 50g, very slowly (a result each 2 days of computation - not that I could absorb things faster at the moment. Life happens), some properties of systems based on the Elo's formula or similar formulas. They are pretty interesting. As usual the code and logged results are in assembla:

https://app.assembla.com/spaces/various-...adScoreSim

[Gamo]

Who got the better chance to win this Football FIFA world Cup based on the pass statistical data.

Gamo

[Gerson W. Barbosa]

(06-13-2018 07:09 AM)Gamo Wrote:  Show how to predict soccer tournament using Microsoft Excel.

What about postdicting?



4 - 1 - 0 - 2 = 1
2 + 0 + 1 + 4 = 7


Notice the quite appropriate facepalm logo


This aftercasting technique appears to always work. Well, not quite so:



8 - 1 - 0 - 2 = 5
2 * 0 * 1 * 8 = 0

[Jlouis]

Some cups ago, an Octopus, IIRC, predicted many results correctly. Some people earn money betting on its prediction.

One very smart guy, expert in statistics, predicted that the Vegas Golden Nights would won the Stanley Cup (NHL hockey). Many people laughed, because this was the first season of Vegas Golden Nights, and nobody believed that they could win. They were champion of the west league, but made the final against Washington Capitals for the Stanley Cup and lost the play offs.

Unfortunately the statistical guy died in an airplane accident, before knowing that he would almost hit his prediction.