COVID-19 Calculator
03-21-2020, 03:26 PM (This post was last modified: 03-21-2020 08:39 PM by Orome.)
Post: #1
 Orome Member Posts: 153 Joined: Mar 2020
COVID-19 Calculator
My love for calculators (and slide rules!) is to blame for my lifelong fascination with computation, and the varied career path that has taken me on, much of which can be measured by the calculators and computers encountered along the way, from JOSS, to a high school IBM 5100, to jobs as a software architect and digital executive.

Sadly, today, that yardstick finds me here.

(Just to be clear: I didn't make this.)
03-21-2020, 08:36 PM
Post: #2
 Geoff Quickfall Senior Member Posts: 786 Joined: Dec 2013
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
Very interesting responses to capture and treatment variables. Nicely done and appreciate the citations. Thanks for posting.
03-22-2020, 01:39 AM
Post: #3
 Dan B Member Posts: 51 Joined: Dec 2013
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
Thank you! The layout is well thought out and your graph is clear and understandable. Great job!
03-24-2020, 02:00 PM (This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 07:08 AM by Pjwum.)
Post: #4
 Pjwum Member Posts: 58 Joined: Jan 2018
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
Tremendous work, thanks for posting this!

I guess many of us are running their own individual modelings. One challenge is to derive an estimate for the dark figure of infected persons. This is a hugely varying factor between countries depending on when testing started, how intense, transportation and evaluation times, etc. It can roughly be calculated using the more reliable mortality numbers and parameters like mortality rate (latest is 1.4% according to Leung, Wu, Leung et al.) and duration of illness.
Either way, it is horrifying.
03-24-2020, 02:21 PM
Post: #5
 Csaba Tizedes Senior Member Posts: 607 Joined: May 2014
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
(03-24-2020 02:00 PM)Pjwum Wrote:  One challenge is to derive an estimate for the dark figure of infected persons.

One possible method:

(03-24-2020 02:00 PM)Pjwum Wrote:  Either way, it is horrifying.

As I wrote in many forums, there was a SARS epidemic and the big medicine manufacturers do nothing to develop the vaccine. There are lots of papers and books about this, like this book: Coronavirus Replication and Reverse Genetics.
Just read the back cover text: "This book contains information on virus genome structure, mechanism of replication and transcription, and the development of tools that make possible reverse genetic studies to understand virus-host interactions and the molecular basis of virus pathogenesis. The book also provides essential information for the development of classical and recombinant vaccines to control coronavirus infections."

This book published in 2005.

Why these big companies do nothing during the last 15 years? Because the profit was too small. That's it. Maybe during these days, this will be more profitable.

Cs.

03-24-2020, 03:54 PM
Post: #6
 Albert Chan Senior Member Posts: 2,640 Joined: Jul 2018
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
Hi, Csaba Tizedes

I had read the book, "The Wisdom of Crowds", but I am not convinced.
It is likely the author already believed in wisdom of crowds, before citing examples.

At the end of 3Blue1Brown video:
Quote:If people are sufficiently worried, then there is a lot less to worry about.
But, if no one is worried, that's when you should worry

03-25-2020, 07:49 AM
Post: #7
 Csaba Tizedes Senior Member Posts: 607 Joined: May 2014
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
And which epidemics model describes better the COVID-19? MODELS (Wiki)

The "Susceptible" is my problem I don't understand exactly what is that. "S" is the full population who are ready to ill?!?

Cs.
03-25-2020, 01:24 PM (This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 01:25 PM by compsystems.)
Post: #8
 compsystems Senior Member Posts: 1,374 Joined: Dec 2013
RE: COVID-19 Calculator

03-25-2020, 06:45 PM
Post: #9
 Pjwum Member Posts: 58 Joined: Jan 2018
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
(03-25-2020 07:49 AM)Csaba Tizedes Wrote:  The "Susceptible" is my problem I don't understand exactly what is that.

Susceptible = number of people who are not immune = entire population - infected - recovered - dead.
03-25-2020, 09:00 PM
Post: #10
 SlideRule Senior Member Posts: 1,469 Joined: Dec 2013
RE: COVID-19 Calculator

Coronaviruses - Methods and Protocols
Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London
Methods in Molecular Biology
ISBN 978-1-4939-2437-0 ISBN 978-1-4939-2438-7 (eBook)

Molecular Biology of the SARS-Coronavirus
ISBN: 978-3-642-03682-8 e-ISBN: 978-3-642-03683-5

MERS Coronavirus - Methods and Protocols
This Humana imprint is published by the registered company Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.
Methods in Molecular Biology
ISBN 978-1-0716-0210-2 ISBN 978-1-0716-0211-9 (eBook)

BEST!
SlideRule

ps: one of he above title is available as a free download on the SPRINGER web site.
03-26-2020, 12:43 PM
Post: #11
 jjohnson873 Member Posts: 197 Joined: Dec 2013
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
During the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak it took about 20 months to develop a vaccine. The vaccine was never made commercially available due to the effective containment of the SARS virus.

Even if a vaccine makes it through all the rounds of testing, it’s unlikely that drugmakers can manufacture enough vaccine to protect everyone who might be exposed to the virus.

Moderna, which currently has the largest manufacturing capacity of the three CEPI-funded groups, thinks it could produce 100 million doses in a year, for the current COVID-19 virus, according to Science. That means health officials would need to prioritize who gets the vaccine. This is based on factors like who would have the most severe symptoms and who is most likely to spread the virus.

It appears that a COVID-19 vaccine, for the general population, will not be available in the immediate future.
03-26-2020, 12:57 PM
Post: #12
 Csaba Tizedes Senior Member Posts: 607 Joined: May 2014
RE: COVID-19 Calculator
(03-26-2020 12:43 PM)jjohnson873 Wrote:  Moderna, which currently has the largest manufacturing capacity of the three CEPI-funded groups, thinks it could produce 100 million doses in a year, for the current COVID-19 virus, according to Science. That means health officials would need to prioritize who gets the vaccine. This is based on factors like who would have the most severe symptoms and who is most likely to spread the virus.